Colleen Dilenschneider and the folks at IMPACTS Experience have been dependable as always and recently provided a market outlook for arts and cultural organizations for 2026 & 2027 based on what research is telling them. (subscription required)
Two of the big general takeaways for me was: First- Use 2019 attendance as a reference point, rather than something you are striving to get back to. The operating environment has changed.
And Second:
The data does not show a sector in retreat, but a sector re-sorting.
The most important macro insight for the visitor serving sector is in 2026 and 2027 is that demand is not collapsing; it’s fragmenting along structural lines. The organizations that are doing well are growing stronger, and the organizations that have been struggling are generally facing increasing and compounding challenges.
While the data shows certain disciplines will see modest to marginal improvements (zoo, aquariums, gardens, history museums/sites, live theater) and others will remain flat or see a small improvement in engagement (children museum, natural history museums, science centers, symphonies, opera, ballet.), they warn readers not to interpret that as a set destiny. These are general indications. Every individual organization is different.
They talk about the self-reinforcing death spiral that can occur when organizations cut back on capacity because they don’t have visitation. Among the things they encourage organizations to do is trying to maintain that capacity.
Additionally, they repeat the importance of findings released over the last year which I have covered. Including reducing the friction of finding information and purchasing admissions.
The fact many visitors appreciate value added experiences rather than discounted ones.
They note that while international travel is down, domestic travel to cultural destinations remains robust. However, you may recall that last month, they qualified this noting people are trying to squeeze their experiences into fewer days and cultural organizations need to have a plan to meet those needs.
